Greetings and welcome to the FreedomSplash podcast for Wednesday, December 14, 2022
Interesting assessment of Russian force structure and strategy
“The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported on November 29 that Russian forces have likely stopped deploying battalion tactical groups (BTGs) in the past three months.[4] The UK MoD stated that the BTGs‘ relatively low allocation of infantry, decentralized distribution of artillery, and the limited independence of BTG decision-making hindered their success in Ukraine.[5] ISW assessed starting in April that Russian BTGs were degraded in various failed or culminated Russian offensives, including the attacks on Kyiv, Mariupol, Severodonetsk, and Lysychansk, and later efforts to reconstitute these BTGs to restore their combat power have failed.[6] Russian forces have likely since thrown their remaining combat power and new personnel, including mobilized personnel, into poorly trained, equipped, and organized ad hoc structures with low morale and discipline.[7] The structure of BTGs and the way the Russian military formed them by breaking up doctrinal battalions, regiments, and brigades likely deprived the Russians of the ability to revert to doctrinal organizations, as ISW has previously assessed, so that the Russians must now rely on ad-hoc structures with mobilized personnel.[8]”
Why Russia is focusing on Bakmut
The town is a pile of rubble
Ukraine hitting behind Russian lines
Ukraine hitting Russian airfields, Russia bombing civilians
Article about water problems in Crimea 18 months ago
Russia goals included water for Crimea
Russia blew a dam to turn on water to Crimea in February 2022
Russia supplies southern Ukraine forces through Crimea
Dzhankoy is next critical target in southern war (located in northern Crimea)
Contains canal, airfield, crossroads & railroad
Ukraine may focus on capturing Tavriysk to cut off water to Crimea
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Until next time, goodbye!
Water rights in Ukraine