Hidden messages
Say the words to hide the truth
The fallout of the disastrous summit between Trump and Zelensky has finally revealed the underlying reason for Trump’s anger and his single-minded demands for specific words from Zelensky.
Trump insists that Zelensky express gratitude for US assistance
Trump won’t allow Zelensky to praise his heroic troops and courageous citizens who have fought the Russian hordes to a standstill. Three years into the war, Russia loses about 100 soldiers for each square kilometer gained. At about 4 square kilometers per day, it will take Russia a century and over half her population to conquer Ukraine.
Does that prove that Russia has already won the war? Seriously?
Russia has not been able to produce anything like a pincer movement to encircle its enemies. The first and only attempt spectacularly failed to encircle Kiev. All movement since then reaches three sides while Ukraine slowly withdraws from the pocket and makes Russia pay dearly for every inch. Russian soldiers are brave and strong. Ukrainian soldiers are amazing.
Translation – Don’t blame us for Biden’s bungling aid packages
Biden sent weapons and cash. I laughed when conservative pundits tacitly admitted that US weapons arrived safely at Ukraine’s frontlines and were making a difference in the war’s outcome. They couldn’t stand the idea that Biden did something right.
However, we all knew that Biden was supporting non-military, non-critical spending in Ukraine. Records from the defunct USAID agency show millions spent to keep women’s designer fashion stores in operation. Rumors have accused Zelensky, his family and top aids of embezzling US funds for their personal use (luxury housing, vacations, etc.). Even if true, we have only one person to blame – Biden – since he kept sending cash rather than weapons.
Conservative thinkers missed that Biden bungled the aid packages. They could have legitimately criticized his implementation but chose to oppose the entire war (as if Zelensky reached across the border and yanked the reluctant Russian army into Ukraine and now holds the feckless Russians hostage to his warmongering).
Why? Ukraine nearly won this war in late 2022
If Biden had delivered war material on-time instead of supporting woke priorities, Russia would have been driven much further back. Ukraine may have driven Russia out of it territory if Biden had sent tanks and planes in September 2022 instead of June 2023 and December 2024.
Trump doesn’t want to send any more aid and certainly doesn’t want to send US troops. Trump has other priorities for spending, paying down the national debt, tax cuts, etc.
Weapons and troops may be needed (at this late stage of the war) to change the balance at the front from its quasi-stalemate status. Britain and France are beginning to perceive themselves as the US in World War I. Their troops on the ground in Ukraine could change the balance of power. They can attack Russia from directions that Putin cannot defend. We could do it, too (and much faster and more effectively if Trump were to wakeup).
Trump insists that Zelensky admit that the war is over
The war is at a near stalemate with Russia slowly advancing in limited areas. Ukraine regains some ground here and there. Essentially, both sides are trading territory with Russia possessing a slight winning advantage. One mistake or misjudgment on either side could complete change the complexion of the war.
Translation – Ukraine must surrender to Russia
Putin wants all of Ukraine. He will accept most of Ukraine as long as he totally controls its government and resources. Otherwise, he wants everything wrapped with a bow of legitimacy from the West.
Putin emphasizes Zelensky’s reign as illegitimate because Zelensky is one of the few politicians with the guts to stand up to Putin. Putin needs to control the government to prevent another anti-Putin politician from arising in the future. The last thing Putin wants is stationing 20-30% of his army in Ukraine forever.
Contrary to Trump’s accusations, Zelensky has stood up to Putin for three years. The first few months he received no aid or assistance from the West (and NATO). He stood alone. Yes, Zelensky depends on foreign aid now, but he has not asked for American troops. He has been content to fight the war with his own men.
Naturally, Ukraine cannot withstand war losses forever. No country can (except the billions of mainland China). That’s doesn’t make the war futile but emphasizes a critical timeframe. Hesitation destroys Ukraine and helps Russia.
Why? Only one of two ways out of this mess – either Russia folds or Ukraine folds
Trump assumes it will be easier to pressure Ukraine to surrender to his “art of the deal” than Putin. After all, Zelensky is losing about 4 square kilometers a day. But wars are not won or lost based on the averages. They are all about the surprise of strategy and guts of the troops. Zelensky is banking on his people, not math.
Putin sees no reason to surrender or pull his troops. He just sends in another 300,000 men every six months during draft season. If NATO were to do its job – oppose Russian aggression in Europe – Putin would have to reevaluate his position. That’s why he constantly threatens NATO with nuclear war should they intervene directly. Bullies protest loudest against what they fear the most.
Trump insists that Zelensky admit it’s time for peace
No one wants this war (except Putin). It’s easy to “want peace.” Trump doesn’t have a dog in this hunt, but Zelensky must consider the cost of that peace.
Conservatives in this country point to a “peace deal” rejected by Ukraine on the eve of the war. However, they cannot present a single benefit to Ukraine for accepting this “deal.”
Translation – Ukraine must surrender to the United States
Trump cannot deliver on the promises he made – fair, lasting and just peace. So, Trump needs Ukraine willing to accept the first offer Putin makes. So far, Putin hasn’t made any concessions, but Trump needs Ukraine ready and willing to surrender.
Why? Trump cannot buyoff Putin, so Ukraine must appear desperate to accept whatever deal Trump can make with Putin
Trump cannot justify turning over most of Ukraine to Putin as fair, lasting and just. So, he must make it appear as if its Ukraine’s idea. Each time Zelensky calls out Trump’s peace as surrender to a tyrant, Zelensky destroys any hope for people to buy into Trump’s narrative.
I believe that Trump naively thought he could convince Putin to leave Ukraine alone with some other benefits. That may have been true two years ago when Putin feared a summer 2023 Ukrainian counter-offensive.
However, Putin cannot afford to break even on a war that has cost him over half-a-million dead and wounded. His people would kill him. Putin hasn’t prepared his people for a negotiated peace. It’s all or nothing for him.
Trump is left with just a few more weeks until his promise of peace in 60 days (and peace by Easter) becomes void. His perceived position as a deal-negotiator and peacemaker is in tatters. He appears desperate. Trump will take anything he can get, but not from Zelensky. That’s why Trump tore up a half-a trillion-dollar rare-earth minerals deal over diplomatic slights, insults and casual apparel.
Putin already knows that he gains more by holding out one day longer. Meanwhile Putin whines and complains like the aggrieved party rather than the ruthless tyrant.
Postscript
There is still an opportunity for Trump to pivot to an aggressive stance against Russia. However, Zelensky will need to stand strong, get help from other sources and (like Trump once said) fight, fight, fight!
I don’t believe Trump will come to this conclusion on his own. I think Putin will ultimately push too much because of his pride, greed and bloodlust. Never forget that these things drive Putin more than reason and self-preservation.